Security Incidents in Mali: Trends and Patterns

In Mali... 26 humanitarian workers have died, 55 humanitarian workers have been wounded, 183 humanitarian workers have been kidnapped.

1 Executive Summary

2 Executive Summary

This analysis examines security incidents affecting humanitarian operations in Mali from 2006 to 2025. Key findings include:

• Post-coup escalation: Following the 2020 military coup, incidents surged to unprecedented levels, peaking with French withdrawal and Wagner Group deployment.

• Kidnapping dominance: Unlike other conflicts, kidnapping is the primary attack method in Mali, reflecting armed groups’ focus on resource extraction and population control.

• Ambush vulnerability: Road networks represent the most dangerous operational environment, with ambushes accounting for most security incidents.

• National staff risk: Malian humanitarian workers face substantially higher security risks than international personnel.

• False security improvements: The recent decline in incidents reflects reduced humanitarian presence following UN peacekeepers’ expulsion, not improved security.

These findings have significant implications for humanitarian operations in Mali’s evolving conflict landscape.

3 Background: The Conflict

3.1 Historical Context

Mali’s crisis began with the 2012 Tuareg rebellion, triggered by fighters and weapons flowing from Libya after Gaddafi’s fall. The Tuareg MNLA briefly allied with Islamist groups to capture northern cities and declare the independent Azawad state. A military coup in March 2012 further destabilized Mali, until French intervention in 2013 pushed back the Islamists (Foreign Relations 2024). Major developments included:

• 2012: Military coup and Tuareg rebellion seize northern Mali
• 2013: French Operation Serval pushes back Islamist groups
• 2015: Peace agreement signed with Tuareg separatists, excluding Islamist factions
• 2013-2019: Gradual expansion of jihadist groups into central Mali
• 2015-2020: Deployment of UN peacekeeping mission MINUSMA across northern regions

Years of marginalization in northern regions, weak governance, and corruption created fertile ground for extremist recruitment among disenfranchised populations.

3.2 Recent Escalation

Mali’s security has deteriorated rapidly since the 2020-2021 military coups. The situation has worsened dramatically with:

• 2022: Junta cuts ties with France and hires Wagner Group mercenaries
• 2022: Moura massacre with over 300 civilian deaths
• 2023: Expulsion of UN peacekeepers creating a security vacuum
• 100%+ increase in attacks since UN withdrawal began
• Renewed fighting with Tuareg separatists in northeast regions
• JNIM jihadist group controlling northern territories
• Humanitarian crisis with thousands displaced
• Multiple sieges of major northern cities including Timbuktu

With international support gone and violence surging on multiple fronts, Mali now stands on the brink of civil war.

Map of Incidents

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4 Temporal Trends in Security Incidents

4.1 Incident Frequency Over Time

Figure 1: Security incidents

4.1.1 Analysis of Incident Trends

The line chart reveals striking patterns in security incidents affecting humanitarian operations in Mali:

• Initial stability (2006-2012): Prior to the Tuareg rebellion and military coup, security incidents remained minimal, with almost no reported attacks on humanitarian operations.

• Modest increase (2013-2018): Following French intervention and the 2015 peace agreement with Tuareg groups, incidents began a slow but steady climb as Islamist groups excluded from peace processes expanded their operations in central Mali.

• Sharp escalation (2019-2022): A dramatic surge occurred after the 2020 military coup, with incidents peaking in 2021-2022 at approximately 20 annual incidents - coinciding with the withdrawal of French forces and their replacement with Wagner Group mercenaries.

• Unexpected decline (2023-2025): Contrary to general security trends, incidents affecting humanitarian operations decreased significantly after the expulsion of UN peacekeepers. This likely reflects reduced humanitarian presence rather than improved security conditions, as many organizations withdrew from high-risk areas.

This pattern reveals a complex relationship between political developments and humanitarian security in Mali, where periods of apparent improvement may actually signal reduced operational capacity rather than enhanced security conditions.

5 Nature of Security Incidents

5.1 Predominant Attack Types

Figure 2: Most common types of attacks

5.1.1 Analysis of Attack Methods

The significant disparity between kidnapping and other attack methods highlights how extremist groups have adapted their strategies, focusing on operations that require minimal resources while maximizing psychological impact and financial gain.

5.2 Attack Contexts

Figure 3: Security incidents by attack context

5.2.1 Analysis of Attack Contexts

There is a significant gap between ambushes and the second most common category. This disparity highlights how armed groups in Mali have strategically prioritized ambush tactics, likely due to their effectiveness along the country’s limited road networks. source

6 Human Impact of Security Incidents

6.1 Casualties by Category

Figure 4: Total casualties by category

6.1.1 Analysis of Casualty Patterns

This chart shows that Malian nationals suffer far more from conflict than internationals. Kidnapping is the most common form of violence against locals, showing how armed groups target communities to gain control and extract ransoms. This data highlights that Malians themselves bear the overwhelming burden of the country’s ongoing security crisis.

7 Major Incidents

7.1 Top 5 Most Impactful Security Incidents

Table 1: Most impactful security incidents (by total affected)

	Year	Location	Total Affected	Killed	Wounded	Context	Actor Type
2537	2018	Public location	9	0	9	Raid	Non-state armed group: Regional
3489	2022	Project site	9	0	0	Raid	Non-state armed group: Unknown
3232	2021	Unknown	8	0	0	Unknown	Non-state armed group: Regional
2859	2020	Road	6	0	0	Ambush	Non-state armed group: Unknown
3950	2024	Road	6	0	0	Ambush	Non-state armed group: Regional

7.1.1 Analysis of Major Incidents

This table displays five significant security incidents in Mali from 2018 to 2024, highlighting the evolution of the conflict. The incidents in public locations (2018) and at project sites (2022) each affected 9 individuals, suggesting targeted attacks on civilian gatherings and humanitarian operations. Road incidents in 2020 and 2024 each affected 6 people.

For more detailed information on the Mali conflict timeline, see the Council on Foreign Relations Conflict Tracker.

8 Conclusions and Recommendations

8.1 Key Findings

This analysis reveals several critical trends in Mali’s security environment:

1. Political instability drives insecurity: The 2020 coup marked a turning point, with incidents increasing fivefold compared to pre-coup periods.

2. Targeted kidnapping operations: Mali shows a pattern of calculated kidnapping targeting humanitarian personnel for financial and strategic gains.

3. Road movement risks: Ambushes along limited transport corridors severely constrain humanitarian access.

4. Unequal risk distribution: The casualty disparity between Malian and international personnel requires tailored security approaches.

5. Misleading security metrics: Military withdrawals correlate with apparent improvements that actually represent reduced humanitarian presence.

Recommendations

8.1.1 For Security Planning

• Implement journey management systems with real-time risk assessments for ambush prevention
• Establish early warning networks for intelligence on armed group movements
• Create specialized anti-kidnapping protocols with comprehensive staff training
• Develop clear security thresholds for program suspension in high-risk areas

8.1.2 For Humanitarian Organizations

• Balance operational presence with community acceptance strategies
• Invest in remote management capabilities for periods of limited access
• Prioritize national staff security with equal protection measures
• Develop flexible programming models adaptable to changing security conditions

8.1.3 For Policy Development

• Advocate for humanitarian access in engagements with all armed actors
• Support regional security approaches spanning Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger
• Engage donors on realistic security costs and operational flexibility
• Promote accountability for attacks against humanitarian workers

8.1.4 For Future Research

• Examine access negotiation effectiveness with different armed groups
• Analyze the impact of foreign security actors (UN, France, Wagner) on humanitarian security
• Study community protection strategies in areas where state authority has receded
• Evaluate digital technology applications for security management in high-risk environments

References

Foreign Relations, Council on. 2024. “Violent Extremism in the Sahel.” https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violent-extremism-sahel.